The Doubling Effect and the Technological Singularity
by Sally Morem
(Nisswa, Minnesota, USA)
According to Kurzweil, technological development is accelerating by means of the doubling effect. Also, the period of doubling is getting shorter. The acceleration of technology is itself accelerating.
Therefore, over an unknown length of time, the doublings should start taking place in months, then in weeks, in days, hours, minutes.
The technological Singularity will occur when the doublings get down to seconds. The development of true Artificial Intelligence may take place before, during, or just after the Singularity is reached.